In-depth analysis of the obstacles to the development of my country's new energy vehicle industry
Ki sa ki endistri sa a manke plis se pa lajan, men teknoloji ki gen matirite ak yon ekip operasyon ki ka fè kòmès komèsyal.
At present, the industry's concerns about the development of the new energy vehicle industry, in addition to the market-oriented mass production contradiction caused by the promotion and application of the fuel vehicle's own technology and the huge initial cost investment, mainly focus on the relatively mature and commercialized mass production of lithium batteries as kinetic energy. Electric vehicle segment. What is restricting the development of the new energy vehicle industry? The author believes that the answer can be classified into three aspects: technology, resources, and policy.
Kle a nan kou boutèy teknik la manti nan batri a
Kit nan Lachin oswa atravè mond lan, gen yon sipò teknik trè matirite ak sistèm fabrikasyon pou manifakti koki ak asanble machin, kidonk pa gen okenn bezwen enkyete twòp. Pou nouvo enèji machin yo, byenke li se relativman fasil yo devlope abitid konsomasyon, si pwoblèm yo nan tan chaje twò long ak ranje kwazyè twò kout pa ka rezoud, Lè sa a, konpare ak machin gaz tradisyonèl yo, ravitaye a se vit ak estasyon yo peple. Li pral pèdi estati li kòm yon nouvo favori nan mache a.
From the perspective of marketing, the "battery replacement station" can very well relieve the troubles of battery life and charging time, and can carry out professional maintenance of the battery. But three major problems lie ahead:
Premyèman, pri konstriksyon sit la tèt li trè gwo, ak batri a bezwen antretyen pwofesyonèl. Ki kalite patnè kapital manifakti batri a ka kolabore ak reyalize sa a?
Dezyèm lan se ke lè konsomatè achte yon machin, modil batri a nan veyikil la ekivalan a peye yon depo ak lwe li. Pati sa a nan envestisman an ka pran 3 a 10 ane pou retounen. Ki kalite antrepriz ki ka pran yon risk konsa?
Twazyèm lan se ke estanda batri aktyèl yo poko inifye. Tankou premye telefòn mobil yo, modil estanda ak entèfas inifye pa ka reyalize. Ki kalite konpayi ki ka genyen sa yo kap avanse-kapasite ak RD pou fòmile ak dirije estanda?
Se poutèt sa, solisyon ki pi reyalis nan moman sa a se toujou vit chaje ak ogmante lavi batri.
In the electric vehicle manufacturing chain, the "three power systems" (battery, motor, and electronic control) are very important, and the battery is the basis and decisive factor. For the lithium-ion battery with the largest commercial mass production nowadays, if you want to achieve fast charging, it is necessary to improve the original material, especially the positive electrode material, at a higher technical level, such as high nickel; if you want to achieve a significant improvement in battery life, An increase in energy density is required. It is worth noting that lithium nickel cobalt manganate has gradually become the mainstream in the past two years, and the energy density of lithium iron phosphate has made breakthroughs in the past two years, which are laying the foundation for the development of large-capacity and long-life battery technology.
An menm tan an, enpak negatif nan pèfòmans sekirite pa ka souzèstime. Pa egzanp, apre eksplozyon telefòn mobil Samsung yo, gwo ayewopò yo te adopte règleman ki pi sevè sou pote ak itilizasyon pil ityòm-ion yo. Pwoblèm debaz la se ke li difisil pou reyalize konbinezon ki pi efikas nan dansite kapasite ak pèfòmans sekirite nan batri a tèt li. Kounye a, pa gen okenn zouti esansyèl. Menm grafèn, ki te yon fwa te eksprime anpil, difisil pou reyalize gwo -pwodiksyon an mas komèsyal nan twa a senk ane.
Nwayo a nan pwoblèm resous manti nan ityòm cobalt
Nan twa ane ki sot pase yo, pri sèl ityòm debaz yo te ogmante dramatikman. Soti nan fen 2014 a 2017, li te monte soti nan mwens pase 40,000 Yuan / tòn a 180,000 Yuan / tòn, ak Lè sa a, tonbe nan apeprè 150,000 Yuan / tòn nan fen ane a. Pri a nan batri-kabonat ityòm te ogmante apeprè 4 a 5 fwa.
Meanwhile, the cobalt situation is looking a little crazy. Statistics show that in the past 10 years, cobalt has experienced a 400 percent increase from 2006 to 2008, and it has also experienced a nearly 50 percent increase under quantitative easing from 2009 to the first half of 2010. Based on the strong demand for ternary materials for new energy vehicles, at the end of August 2017, the cobalt quotation published by the British "Metal Bulletin" (abbreviated as MB) reached 29 per pound, but there is still more than 65 percent of the room for the historical high. Since cobalt ore generally exists in the form of copper-cobalt or nickel-cobalt, the price relationship between cobalt and nickel-copper cannot be ignored.
Èske pri yo monte akòz mank de resous? repons lan se negatif.
From the analysis of lithium resources, the world's current proven lithium reserves are 14Mt, and the current annual demand is 32.5kt. Lithium resources are mainly distributed in the range of 30-40 degrees north latitude and 20-30 degrees south latitude, such as the Andes Plateau of South America, the western United States and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China. Australia and Chile together control 75 percent of the world's lithium resources.
Nan peyi mwen an, 90 pousan nan resous ityòm yo distribye nan lwès la, ak min aktyèl la se sitou ityòm minrè (spodumene ak lepidolit) ak klas mwayèn ba (0.8 pousan -1.4 pousan, pi ba pase 1.465 pousan). nan peyi etranje-3. 55 pousan), ak kontni an mayezyòm nan Eau se relativman wo (rapò a Mg / Li se jeneralman pi gran pase 40, ak Atacama Salt Lake nan Chili se sèlman 6.47), kidonk li se difisil yo sèvi ak sou yon echèl endistriyèl.
From the analysis of cobalt resources, the world's cobalt resources are rich and concentrated. According to the 2016 Mineral Commodity Summaries of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the world's proven cobalt reserves in 2015 were 7.1 million tons, mainly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, Cuba, New Caledonia, Zambia and Russia, which accounts for about 80 percent of the world's total cobalt reserves.
In terms of production capacity, there are 10 mines producing cobalt resources in Congo (DRC), but 5 of them are held by Glencore of Switzerland, accounting for about 67 percent of the cobalt resources in producing mines in Congo (DRC). Freeport Corporation of the United States, Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation of Kazakhstan, Shalina Resources Corporation of the United Arab Emirates, China Minmetals Group and Jinchuan Group each hold one. The rest of the world's cobalt production capacity is not enough to shake Congo's dominance.
Ak amelyorasyon nan itilizasyon endistriyèl -echèl ak dekouvèt nan teknoloji ekstraksyon, ki baze sou prensip ke ityòm, cobalt ak lòt eleman metal pa disparèt, endistri resiklaj batri ityòm te parèt tou dousman, resiklaj te vin yon reyalite, ak demann pou resous natirèl yo pral redwi kòmsadwa. Sitiyasyon an skyrocketing se tankou istwa a nan minrè fè, epi li se plis rezilta nan espekilasyon kontwòl entènasyonal kapital, ki pa ka konplètman reflete sitiyasyon reyèl la nan devlopman endistriyèl.
Kle nan enkyetid politik yo se sibvansyon
Yon konpreyansyon debaz bezwen klarifye: sans nan sibvansyon leta pou machin enèji nouvo se sipòte yon endistri, kreye yon avantaj premye -mover, epi byen vit elaji mache a, olye ke sibvansyon ki sanble ak sektè agrikòl tradisyonèl yo. Objektif la se kenbe estabilite disk debaz la. Se poutèt sa, nan fiti prè, politik sibvansyon an pral definitivman anile.
The current orientation of policy subsidies generally focuses on two aspects: first, at the technical level, encouraging technological innovation, keeping pace with the world, and rewarding industry leaders; second, at the market level, breaking through the bottleneck of environmental protection, advocating green travel, and leveraging large and medium-sized cities , highlight the responsibility of a major country, and rely on the "Belt and Road" to seize overseas markets.
Espesifik nan pwodiksyon an, operasyon ak lavant pwodwi nan antrepriz, lavant aktyèl yo nan machin elektrik pi sanble yo grandi tou dousman oswa menm n bès, ki gen yon gwo relasyon ak ekstansyon an nan peryòd la livrezon nan plis pase 6 mwa. Pwoblèm nan li reflete se ke kapasite aktyèl pwodiksyon pil pouvwa a trè limite kounye a. Nan wout la teknik ki deja egziste, byenke konpayi ki gen rapò yo te envesti tou nan faktori batri ak sèl ityòm debaz (sitou kabonat ityòm ak idroksid ityòm) pwojè, men Tan sik la pou planifikasyon, demonstrasyon, konsepsyon, apwobasyon, konstriksyon, ak pwodiksyon de pwojè endistriyèl, espesyalman endistri chimik kote sèl ityòm debaz yo sitiye, se jeneralman 1-2 ane, ak lage nan gwo echèl nan kapasite pwodiksyon yo ta dwe anvan 2020.
The related terminal car market demand has not eased for a moment, as can be seen in the number of new energy vehicles in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen (for example, Beijing's number has been as far away as 2021). Some foreign media believe that if there is no capacity limit for batteries, the sales of pure electric vehicles can easily surpass that of plug-in hybrid vehicles. In recent years, the Chinese government has achieved the goal of vigorously supporting the development of new energy vehicles. The key to restricting the development of new energy vehicles is not government subsidies or market demand, but the formation of production capacity under technological breakthroughs. Public information shows that in November 2017, Volkswagen announced that it would invest more than 10 billion euros (11.8 billion U.S. dollars) to build 40 new energy vehicles with local Chinese partners. The company hopes to produce 1.5 million new energy vehicles in China by 2025. cars, most of which are electric vehicles. Toyota has also said it will produce electric vehicles in China by 2020. BMW's battery RD and production center was opened from Munich to Shenyang, and BMW also chose Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) as a partner.
Li ka di ke sa a se epòk ki pi bon pou machin enèji nouvo. Nouvo fòs ap vini, epi yon gwo kantite kapital te enplike nan tout aspè nan min, sèl ityòm debaz, materyèl elektwòd, pwodiksyon batri ak fabrikasyon machin nan divès mwayen, epi li angaje nan sezi opòtinite. Bigwig tradisyonèl yo te leve tou toudenkou, travay di, ap eseye estabilize fondamantal yo ak elaji nan nouvo zòn. Nan yon mo, sa ki endistri sa a pi manke se pa lajan, men teknoloji ki gen matirite ki ka aplike nan mache a ak yon ekip operasyon ki ka fè kòmès komèsyal.
